September, 2021

Pushing Higher

Stocks surged at the start of last week as investor sentiment improved on news of the FDA’s approval of its first COVID-19 vaccine, a strong housing number and comments by the Federal Reserve Bank-Dallas president that he would support delaying tapering if the Delta variant spread worsened.

Stocks continued their climb through midweek, pushing the S&P 500 to another record high and the NASDAQ Composite above 15,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed the week at record highs following Fed Chair Powell’s comments that Fed is likely to begin winding down its monthly bond purchases (aka tapering) by year-end, though no interest rate hikes were imminent.¹

Powell Speaks

At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday provided further insights into Fed plans to begin tapering. Powell said that the Fed may likely commence tapering prior to year-end, adding that the wind down of bond purchases should not be seen as a signal for future rate hikes. Powell emphasized that labor market conditions remain short of the Fed’s target for maximizing employment. He also reiterated his case for why inflation remains a transitory phenomenon.¹

With a number of Regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents already supportive of tapering, investors may see more definitive steps coming out of next month’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.

Mixed Signals

Are you having a tough time keeping track of inflation's mixed signals? You’re not alone.

Consumer prices in July climbed at their fastest rate since August 2008. Worse, producer prices, which can be an indicator of future price changes at the consumer level, rose at the highest rate since tracking began.²

However, in recent weeks, the stock market has shrugged off the inflation news, believing that the worst is over and rising prices will moderate in the future.

It’s important to remember that the stock market is a discounting mechanism, which means it’s always looking forward. Put another way, the stock market’s price today represents all available information about current and future events. How far forward is the stock market looking? Most would agree it’s “discounting” activity six to nine months into the future.³

Does that mean inflation will be lower in six to nine months? That’s what the stock market is suggesting. But the stock market also has a less-than-perfect record as a discounting mechanism, largely because the future is somewhat unknowable.³

Volatility...What Volatility?

This calendar year has been a smooth ride in the stock market. Through the end of July, there were only four days where the S&P 500 was either up or down 2% or more. As you can see in the following chart, that figure is quite low relative to many of the years since 2001. Also based on this chart you can see that it is hard to decipher any type of pattern. There have been long stretches of time with volatility and conversely long stretches without.⁴

It can be easy to become complacent while the market is moving steadily in an upward direction. One thing to keep in mind is the road is not always as smooth as it has been so far this year.

Assess Life Insurance Needs

Power-Packed Pumpkin Spice

Cinnamon, Nutmeg, Ginger, and Allspice, the spices typically used in a Pumpkin Spice blend, individually each have some pretty excellent health benefits and are delicious and power-packed when combined.  Tiffany Chou, a registered dietitian at Cape Cod Healthcare’s JML long-term care facility, outlined these benefits in the Cape Cod Health News.

Cinnamon – “It has antioxidants and some anti-inflammatory capacity. It’s like a natural preservative for us. Some studies show it can reduce LDL, which is the bad cholesterol. Other studies show that cinnamon can improve the sensitivity of insulin so it’s better able to regulate our blood sugar levels.”

Nutmeg – “Nutmeg also has antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. One of the interesting things about nutmeg is that it may boost our mood because it has an antidepressant effect. Nutmeg also contains small amounts of fiber, B vitamins and minerals. Too much nutmeg can cause side effects that include hallucination and rapid heartbeat, but the amount in a pumpkin spice is far too small for that.”

Ginger – “Ginger is highly regarded in traditional medicine. It treats nausea and morning sicknesses, and it also has an anti-inflammatory factor. It may lower blood sugar and LDL. Another interesting thing is that it improves brain function. One study showed that it improves brain function for people who have Alzheimer's disease.”

Allspice – “Allspice actually comes from a small berry. It has antioxidants and can soothe an upset stomach and reduce bloating.”

When deciding if you should indulge in a Pumpkin Spice treat, Chou cautioned to be mindful of the sugar content.  “Feel free to have some treats, just remember to keep the portions small and choose carefully,” she said. “A 16-ounce pumpkin spice latte has 50 grams of sugar in it. That would not be a good option for people who have diabetes, or really anybody.”

Food Network has also highlighted the benefits of Pumpkin Spice with an article titled Health Benefits of Pumpkin Spice, As a bonus, they provided a recipe to make your own Pumpkin Spice Blend as detailed below! The addition of cardamom gives this blend another layer of natural sweetness.

DIY Pumpkin Spice Blend

Makes about 1/2 cup

Ingredients:

1/4 cup ground cinnamon

2 tablespoons ground ginger

1 tablespoon ground nutmeg

1 tablespoon ground cardamom

1 teaspoon ground allspice

1 teaspoon ground cloves

Directions: Combine spices in a bowl and mix well. Store in an airtight container for up to 3 months.

Understanding and Combating Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD)

Seasonal Affective Disorder, also known as SAD, is a form of depression related to the change of seasons. Feeling down and discouraged happens to the best of us, but these feelings, when you can’t seem to shake them, might need more attention.

SAD may affect 11 million people in the U.S. each year, and 25 million more may have a milder form called the winter blues.¹ The Mayo Clinic defines SAD as a type of depression related to changes in seasons – SAD usually starts in the fall and continues into the winter months. However, there are also occurrences of Summer SAD.⁷  The main feature of SAD is that your mood and behavior shift at the same time every year as the seasons change.

Other common symptoms^6,7 of SAD may include:

• Feeling sad, cranky, or hopeless
• Less energy
• Trouble concentrating
• Fatigue
• More desire to be alone
  

While this disorder is felt across all demographics, it is more regularly diagnosed in women and is found to occur more frequently in younger adults.  

In an article published by the Cleveland Clinic, they suggest three ways to have a brighter mood and combat SAD.⁸

1. Exercise – Moving your body creates good brain chemistry and combats the tendency to be sluggish.
2. Create social situations – Try to connect with others by meeting up with family, friends, or volunteering.
3. Use light therapy – Also called phototherapy, light therapy mimics our exposure to the sun, minus the ultraviolet rays. It may improve the mood of a majority of people suffering from SAD.  While it is generally safe and well-tolerated by most people, please check with your doctor if it is right for you.

To learn more about the signs and symptoms of Seasonal Affective Disorder and discover ways to fight it, continue reading the articles below.  If you or someone you know experiences symptoms of SAD, please speak with a doctor to determine the best individual course of action.

• Cleveland Clinic - 3 Best Strategies to Fight Seasonal Affective Disorder
• Johns Hopkins Medicine - Seasonal Affective Disorder
• Mayo Clinic – Seasonal Affective Disorder
• Fight Off Seasonal Depression with These 7 Affordable Essentials – By Lifestyle Writer Shelby Deering
• How to Fight Seasonal Depression Amid the Pandemic - New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. CNBC, August 27, 2021}

^{2. CNBC, August 11, 2021}

^{3. Investopedia.com, April 28, 2021}

^{4. Morningstar, July 31, 2021}

^{5. Life Happens, 2019}

^{6. WebMD.com, September 12, 2020}

^{7. MayoClinic.org}

^{8. ClevelandClinic.org, November 12, 2019}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.}

^{The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.}

^{U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.}

^{International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.}

^{Please consult your financial professional for additional information.}

^{By providing links to other sites, GTS Financial does not guarantee, approve, or endorse the information or products available on these sites.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}